Kind of on the down, or I would buy you dare!

 Kind of on the down, or I would buy you dare!
Stock market as early as 8 am December 23, 2009 opening day on Wednesday
required reading
1, the U.S. tax cuts for the stocks of three consecutive home buyers S & P and Nasdaq up days were a record intraday high of 2009 in Europe, Asia-Pacific stock markets continued to rise CD A-share market fell below the half line
U.S. stocks rose slightly on Tuesday, has been rising for a third day, second-hand housing sales surge in November provides support for the market. American Association of real estate transactions reported in November on a monthly second-hand housing sales increase of 7.4%, well above market expectations of 2.5% last month, sales reached the highest level in nearly three years, compared with 44% last year . the government to provide tax breaks for the home buyers incentives such as substantial increase in home sales is an important reason.
Dow Jones industrial average rose 50.79 points to 10464.93 points, or 0.49%; the Nasdaq composite index rose 15.01 points to 2252.18 points, or 0.69%; Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 4.17 points to 1118.40 points, or 0.39%. Standard & Poor's 500 index and the Nasdaq were a record intraday high of 2009.
dollar index rose 0.3% to a high of 3 months. The dollar's rise to the pressure on commodity markets, CRB commodity futures index fell 0.7%. Gold futures fell 0.9% to $ 1,085.60 an ounce.
FTSE 100 index rose 1.14%, Germany's DAX index rose 0.75%, the French CAC40 index rose 1.1%. Asia is the major stock markets have gained 22. Japan, Korea, Singapore stock market closed up 1.91%, respectively, 0.69%, 1.22% . Hong Kong stock market, opening to go in the afternoon dragged down by the A shares fell slightly lower, the Hang Seng index closed up 0.69%, to close at 21,092.04 points; Enterprises Index up 1.20%, to close at 12,349.86 points.
(sand: U.S. Government provide tax cuts to support the recovery of the real estate industry is the main reason for today's U.S. stocks rise; recent U.S. stocks and the dollar's price formation mechanism
China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Shang Fulin said in Beijing yesterday to improve the GEM distribution and regulatory institutional arrangements to promote the accelerated development of new industries, and actively and steadily push forward market-oriented reforms, improve the level of market price formation mechanism.
4, Beijing soared to state-owned enterprises accounted for Liu Cheng
As the five ministries, Beijing this month to enter the market 3 yuan / square meter of floor price of the transaction, the total price of land in the service will exceed 100 billion yuan. more market estimates, the floor price for this block or break 4 yuan / square meter, the total transaction will be break even 12 billion.
(sand: why the end of a time when state-owned enterprises, private enterprises rush to blitz?)
5, Mr. Tu: no timetable for launch of an international board
Shanghai Municipal Committee, vice mayor Mr. Tu told reporters 22 interview, said that the launch of the SSE depending on the international board for enterprise, rule making and other related cases, currently no timetable.
(sand: the sand under the old view, the international board in 2010 or even 2011 have no hope of release.)
6, the Commission: the gradual relaxation of conditions for establishment of the securities business department director
SFC agencies recently said Huang Hong-yuan, the Securities Commission will gradually relax the eligibility criteria established by the Ministry of business, timely to consider further delegation of approval authority. Also, the Securities Industry Association, said the commission self-discipline to continue to study the issue.
(sand: the former in Shanghai, , the increase to the small and medium business department major cities, urban development.)
feeling of the old sand
1, kind of on the down, or I would buy you dare!
2, from now until New Year the former is Jiancang, Opening of, to dare to > 3,2010 winning or losing the year is up to you in the next twenty or thirty trading days this position may be!
4, the policy aspect of the present chaos of a clear understanding should be maintained, regardless of how to say, China's economy still in recovery, climbing stage, the various programs to stimulate the economy can not give up halfway!
Bo
bubble together the following article is written by an official of Development and Reform Commission, the old sand study reading times that is very valuable, perhaps on behalf of the central ideas for future economic development, are recommended for everyone, the article is longer, looking slowly read to mm
Society Secretary-General Wang
the outbreak of the subprime crisis interrupted the maintain a high growth rate, we must find new growth drivers.
original power disappear: not dependent on exports, investment is not sustainable
2003 ~ 2007, China's rapid economic growth came mainly from two aspects.
domestic front, the new century [39.72 0.03%] have occurred since the housing and automotive explosive consumer demand for the two to guide the upgrading of consumption structure, the structure of the corresponding change in domestic supply, energy, raw materials and machinery, electronics industry which access to tremendous growth. Internationally, there is a new wave of globalization, China's export structure to guide upgrades and make this period as the fastest growing export demand for power.
it has benefited from international and domestic both major structural change, China has maintained sustained during this period of high growth. which, based on steel and nonferrous metal sector investment growth rate of 120% ~ 170%, general equipment, special equipment, instruments and other equipment manufacturing sector investment growth rate as high as 60% to 70%, investment growth in the export sector are generally more than 50% over the same period of the investment growth rate of 31%.
power, but both are in a recession.
international level, Although the third quarter from a recovery in the U.S. economy, the crisis is not past, because the huge U.S. financial system In the , at least in the medium term future, can not reproduce the new century, world trade growth since the scene.
domestic front, with the deepening of the market, residents gradually widening income gap, which led the residents can not be the main revenue growth synchronized with the overall economic growth. the middle class in developed market economies, the proportion of generally about 80%, but the domestic relevant research shows the value of the median income in urban households in China accounted for only about 15%. This has led China's first money when it's part of the population after the purchase of a car and housing,
majority of the population can not follow up, which is difficult to form the 80s of last century China into the family of home appliances as the representative of as automobile and housing consumption by the middle class, driven by about 20 years of sustained high growth. which caused the overproduction, which makes difficult to sustain investment growth.
In response to the crisis, the Chinese government currently relies mainly on increased investment demand to hedge against decline in export demand, but this approach contains a sharp contradiction is formed if the huge investment in the current round of capacity needs in the future without object, it will form a more massive overproduction. Infrastructure There is also the problem of excess, if a loan to build the infrastructure not justify the utilization of a serious lack of investment in the banking system will lead to bad debt.
If the world economic crisis after 2011 broke out again, the Government will not have as The investment and loans so substantial room for growth. From this point of view, if it continues to remain at the front line of the original growth path, investment growth is not sustainable.
not dependent on exports, investment is not sustainable, logical The result will be China's economy will slow growth. at least in the repair process of globalization in the new decade, economic growth may fall to 7% or even lower.
1 poses two main problems around the distribution chain in China
The Government is clearly aware of the problem of excess production within the economy are sharpened, but also understand the current approach to security with increased investment in growth, with the next generation of excess production capacity is more conflict, the government has to suppress the outbreak of the crisis of overproduction as a macro the central task of regulation.
The main approach is to suppress the excess capacity on the one hand, one hand lifting consumption, hoping thereby to change the balance of aggregate supply and demand situation.
Although this approach make sense, but in theory it does not make sense on. Marxist modern mass production of capitalism has long been that the principle of social reproduction, there are four basic aspects, namely the production, circulation, distribution and consumption. surplus is allocated part of the occurrence of a problem, and we now have round and round in production only, bypassing the income gap is widening the conflict.
The result of this is because savings greater than investment in fundamental contradiction will not disappear, the pressure of the steel and cement production capacity, would give rise to excess of other departments. even as China's industrial capital in the country have no way out and a massive outflow of China is more negative. So, to bypass the distribution chain, no matter to what can and can not solve the problem of excess production.
the same way in an attempt to prevent the consumption by stimulating consumption rates continue to decline, the purpose can not be achieved. in the distribution structure does not touch the premise of stimulating consumption and short-term increase in consumption can only be moved forward to future consumption, peak consumption caused by stimulus inevitably connected to the next stage of a consumer downturn.
and, because they do not touch the distribution structure, is virtually impossible to cause a general increase in income of residents, the effectiveness of the stimulus will be extremely limited. such as the beginning of 2009, expected 150 billion element of the through the distribution chain to address the total social demand and supply balance, not only in theory, unreasonable, in practice, it must be the road gets narrower, in the short term there may be some small effect in the long run but they can not solve the problem of excess production and can not really improve the consumption rate. The Government is still hoping to promote the development of emerging strategic industries, but not big enough to replace the original pillar industry investment and export demand, but also market risk.
bypass distribution links to solve the problem, also brought two problems. First, macroeconomic control will become increasingly difficult. If an even greater crisis since 2011, hit again, due to overcapacity, pressure on banks bad debt, investment difficult to play the leading role, consumption is difficult to increase and other factors, macro-control will be into a corner. in the next crisis, the Chinese economy will be difficult like this to bounce back quickly and may even get out to the long-term.
second is the contradiction in the macro-control so that the reform and development relations into chaos. crisis, the government was forced by local governments at all levels of state-owned enterprises to invest in the platform to form the incremental aspects of property rights capacity really aroused the discussions, as a into the macro-control more difficult.
2 break with the distribution of the urbanization problems
widening income gap is already an indisputable fact, but there are reasons for income gap structure and strategy in two ways.
institutional reasons, the reform created new wealth class, they not only earn income through work, but also be able to get through the possession of production revenue, resulting in income to the phenomenon of minority concentration.
system caused by the income distribution gap is present we generally see and realize. now why would bypass the distribution of macro-policy conflicts, but also because the distribution system caused by very bad to resolve conflicts. because after 30 years of reform, China has interest in the formation of a complex and interest groups. Throughout the history of Western capitalism, the great social interest adjustments, always in the experience of violent social revolution and even before oscillation occurred. For example, the establishment of the Western welfare state, that is, the century until the Great Depression 30 years after World War II played a large number of socialist countries, the modern capitalist economic and social foundation is extremely shaken, the capitalist class was to spend money to improve the lives and welfare of workers, thus to maintaining social stability and The total supply and demand balance.
China's socialist market economy, establishing from the beginning until the current round of economic growth began to truly characterized by egalitarianism under the planned economy to get out, in a period of time gap opened for a large number of hard to avoid, if now on the market economy major surgery, not only for the big social oscillation, and it is easy for economy strong. So, while the institutional factors leading to disparities in income distribution must be corrected, but it should be taken to safe, progressive manner.
strategic reasons is that 60 years of New China has always adopted an urbanization lagging behind 45%, but it includes 1.6 million rural people. All told, the real rate of urbanization in China in 2007 only 34% lower than the statistics show that the urbanization rate of 11 percent. rest of the world in per capita GDP of 3,000 U.S. dollars time, the average urbanization rate is 55%, East Asia, Japan and South Korea is 75%, at the same level of per capita income, it is clear China's urbanization rate is significantly lower.
industrialized production of goods for the urban population, because Rural residents can live a natural economic production, so if not as long as urbanization, industrialization, that is, as long as supply growth, not growth in demand would have a serious overproduction.
reform and opening up, China's income gap between urban and rural residents 2.5 times, opened in 2008 to 3.3 times, so only 1 / 3 of China's urban population, but consumption in China, the whole population can account for more than 2 / 3 share. In Japan and South Korea, in the process of industrial take-off The urban-rural gap is also widening tendency, but the maximum 1.7 times, however, to the later stages of industrialization, rural residents also higher than the income of urban residents about 10%, is a process of contraction after the first pull is because their process of industrialization and urban synchronous advance of.
industrialization in China is obviously much faster than the pace of urbanization, which led to the production capacity when China has to meet the consumption level per capita GDP of 3,000 U.S. dollars, China's main residents mm9 million farmers per capita income less than 700 dollars. The study shows that the income gap in China, the urban-rural gap to account for about 60%, leading to the bulk distribution of contradictions.
knot untie the core of China's economy, which is can have social spending 10 trillion yuan from the current 20 trillion yuan increased to .2008, China's total retail sales of 10 trillion yuan, total exports is calculated by RMB 9 trillion yuan, if only the domestic consumption can be increased to 10 trillion yuan, no matter how bad the international environment, China's economy may also stays on, and which is dominated by domestic demand towards the long-term rapid growth of new track.
3 before the stock: the migrant workers and
family into what should be the urban population urbanization? My understanding is that the stock should be divided into two cities and the incremental phase, and direction must be led by the Metropolitan.
stocks are has been working in the city year round 1.2 million migrant workers, who have joined the ranks of urban employment, but because the house in the countryside, so in the city occupying a narrow shed, the consumption is kept to a minimum, wage income is basically returning rural households. The average standard, net of long-term stability has been living in the city of 20 million rural population, the 1 million migrant workers and their families into the city to be an increase of 4 million urban population, so that China's urbanization rate of 34% from the current raised to 64%. If the 40 million living in the suburbs, the rural population is taken into account, the urbanization rate also rose to more than 67.5%.
the new millennium, China's urbanization has accelerated the trend increase of about 0.8 per year percentage points, if these 440 million rural population into the city ten years to complete the task, will require upgrading of the next decade, urbanization rate, we must accelerate to an annual 3.35 percentage point than in the past 3 years faster times more.
the population of a small country like Korea as the source of the food into foreign countries, so in the industrialization and urbanization process, the food will inevitably conflict with the construction of the East Asian region than in any economy are sharp.
land available in China, but on the one hand serious shortage of resources, on the other hand there is a serious waste of the most prominent problem is the low volume rate of existing cities, and urban construction area from the urban built-up area compared to the cities is 2, China's Taiwan and Hong Kong is 1.2 and 1.6, respectively, while in China, even the most high-rise building in Shanghai is only 0.8, the end of 2007 the national average is only 0.5.
4.4 million rural people into the city if settled, it means that China's urban population to increase 1 times, in accordance with the present Chinese urban population density, we need to be accounted for 6,000 mu of cultivated land, which has not yet coming to an end, because China's population peak in 2030, the modernization of China will , the urbanization rate should continue to increase to 90%, is also an additional 400 million urban population, still have to account for 6,000 mu of cultivated land, which is the situation in China can not afford.
Therefore, we must make Chinese cities rates generally increase the volume to 2 or more, so that it can account for the new urban area of cultivated land under the premise of a limited increase in China's urbanization process to complete. From this sense, China's urbanization process must enhance the volume of the original rate of the city around transformation of the parallel advance, and this is the original expansion of the city continued to take on more rural population transfer, and not many new cities, new ways of.
farmers into urban residents into the city, the possession of the original homestead in rural areas and the contracting field must surrender, so that you can increase to remain in rural agricultural labor force per capita amount of cultivated land, thereby increasing their level of wealth, so that China's The two basic security and social security, the state should surrender homestead migrant and contract conditions for the exchange, to provide them with the two basic protection, this urbanization and rural areas the their land has long been the , we must use the process, so that a large number of farmers into the cities, will form similar to the South-East Asia and Latin America as a large-scale urban poor residential area. This makes sense but no need to worry about though. Southeast Asia and Latin America because of large-scale slum formation in these regions general lack of capital, so the city can not be a substantial absorption of the capital surplus labor in rural areas, but occurred in rural areas tyrannical annexation of land, a large number of farmers driven to the city again, so gather a large number of urban fringe poverty, the formation of slums.
But China there is no shortage of capital, currently only bad for bank deposits up to 19 trillion yuan, as long as China's huge rural population with the remaining capital cities combined, can have real productivity and consumption. specific practices, as urbanization start input, can be considered first by the long-term urban development bonds issued by the Government, on the one hand can be used for migrant housing construction sources, on the other hand can be used for the absorption of the urban enterprise employment of migrant workers and expand business scale of the investment subsidies.
4 further incremental: the direction of the Metropolitan
incremental urbanization is in resolving the current migrant, the follow-up to the problem of 4 million farmers into the city. This includes two things, first, township enterprises to urban concentration, is the establishment of a large metropolitan area.
154 million farmers in the township enterprises.
must increase the cost, but to a later stage of its shortcomings to become apparent. One has more arable land, the enterprise is not easy after the closure of large plants to take over other companies; the second is distributed layout can lead to centralized treatment of industrial pollutants, the current township pollution caused by enterprises already account for 45%; third is distributed layout led to modern finance, logistics, information and legal services are difficult to cover, has become an obstacle to continued development of township enterprises. these township enterprises have decided the city sooner or later have to focus on , back to the industrialization must rely on the traditional path of urbanization.
If there are 100 million rural enterprises from the local workforce is migrant workers, rural enterprises can bring them into the city of 4 million people and their families into the City, China's urbanization rate rose above 90% can be had. increments of urbanization in China should be better than the stock of slower pace of urbanization. But where the conditions are ripe, you can make the stock of parallel and incremental urbanization .
incremental urbanization The second meaning is through the government planning to make the original urban renewal, expansion and new urban construction, lead to the construction of China's urbanization Metropolitan direction.
plain area of only 12% of total land area of the situation, the decision of China's urbanization must be to build a large metropolitan area as the direction, must be engaged in highly intensive land use patterns in China's urban construction.
the Metropolitan model can most intensive use of land. big cities the amount of economic output per unit of land carrying capacity and population, than in small cities or even several times higher than the dozen. Moreover the reason for the metropolitan circle, the circle is a complete industrial system with to land use can significantly reduce traffic.
example, the mid-70s in the last century, Japan's transport area of only 115 square meters per capita, while the United States up to 1500 meters. from our perspective, the per capita area of the city since 2003 area of 210 square meters, of which about 80 square meters per capita traffic area, and traffic growth rate of the urban area covers an area of growth in per capita more than twice that at this pace, China's urban population reached 850 million and they will not because then covering to protect not go out to dinner while.
Therefore, China must be taken to the Metropolitan model, to promote the process of urbanization will in the end.
metropolitan mode can significantly reduce traffic transport demand, but also enhance their economic competitiveness of a region as well as an important way. From the comparison with Japan, we can see that when the two countries total GDP of 1.4 trillion USD in time (Japan, 1972, China 2003 ), Japan's cargo volume is only 38% of China's cargo turnover is less than 9% in China, because Japan adopted a metropolitan model, the transport between the three major metropolitan area less than the amount of all cargo 2%, while more than 98% are in the metropolitan area transportation needs within the the layout of the national economy or in the main distribution mode, a large number of manufactured goods from east to west, from north to south long distance transport, consumption in the circulation time and cost of its capital occupied for much higher than the metropolitan model . In this sense, the upcoming high tide of urbanization in China, which adopted a metropolitan area where the first model, which the competitiveness of businesses in the region and the regional economic impact of the higher.
essence, metropolitan model is the requirements of market development in Japan after the war out of the four land-use planning, are proposed greater than the power of government. However, if in accordance with the laws of market economy by the government to promote the metropolitan area with good planning the construction of the formation of metropolitan area can reality in the next 20 years to add more than 800 million urban population, and now only the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and the Bohai region have begun to take shape metropolitan area, compared to China in the future will occur in the coastal and interior more than 20 large metropolitan area, the more need the government make urban development planning, and guide the orderly conduct of urbanization in China.
5 Conclusion
Central Economic Work Conference, to be based on urbanization, expansion of domestic demand, which is an important progress, but it needs further, because this is only proposed to encourage small and medium cities and small towns of the expansion, but this does not completely solve the problem of demand growth driving force.
2008 by the end of China's 200 million population of over 60% of cities coast, while 50 million people below 73% of medium and small cities in the Mainland China also accounted for a small town 2 / 3. so make small and medium cities and small towns targeted expansion, is the main increase in urban population in the mainland, but the farmers go out to work , the main flow to the coastal cities. So even with urban hukou workers to small towns to encourage farmers to settle in small towns in the Mainland because there is no more job opportunities, they will not flow to these towns, not to the family to migration of these towns.
If you want to urbanization as a new driving force for China's economic growth, we must first of all coastal cities as the basis to start, and then to the mainland cities as the basis to build a large metropolitan area. I believe the right path will eventually be recognized by everyone, and a large metropolitan area as the direction of the tide of urbanization in China will come in the near future.